A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
